Summary:

Since October 2024, I’ve been dollar-cost averaging into Celsius Holdings ($CELH), a decision rooted in something simple: I noticed it everywhere. At school, when our vending machine gets restocked with Celsius, within days, it's empty again. Then I noticed it at the gym, in students' backpacks, on TikTok, and even in finance bro meme culture. I identified that Celsius isn't just another energy drink, it's a brand with cultural momentum. And that's exactly what I took away from Peter Lynch’s methodology: invest in what you see around you before Wall Street catches on.

I’ve noticed that Celsius is the new go-to drink for students and professionals. With 200mg of caffeine per can, zero sugar, and "healthy" branding, Celsius hits a spot that students and young professionals crave. The caffeine-to-cost ratio also makes it a better deal than Red Bull or Monster. Anecdotally, Celsius is gaining more shelf space and selling out more often at my local grocery store and gas station faster than any other drink, and this same trend shows up in broader sales data too.

According to Beverage Digest, Celsius has been gaining market share steadily, hitting around 12% U.S. volume share by late 2024. Although that puts them behind Monster and Red Bull, they still are way ahead of other niche drinks.

Red Bull is still popular, but Celsius is the new wave, especially on platforms like TikTok and Instagram. It’s embedded in the social media aesthetic of fitness influencers, college students, and finance bros. This organic brand strength is difficult to quantify but absolutely matters in a crowded consumer space.

From a fundamental standpoint, Celsius is still in high-growth mode. In 2023, they posted +70% revenue growth year-over-year. Their gross margins are around 50%, lower than Monster (~60%) but improving. Despite the growth, the stock tanked from mid-2024 highs due to order slowdowns from PepsiCo distributors and legal drama around inventory disclosure. It dropped nearly 70% from peak to trough. But if you believe the long-term trajectory is still up (as I do), that made for a beautiful DCA opportunity.

Celsius faced a class-action lawsuit in late 2024 alleging that they misrepresented PepsiCo-related inventory dynamics. On top of that, distributors paused or cut orders, leading to an inventory pile-up. These events spooked the market, but Celsius’ core consumer demand never faltered. Retail sales still grew +7% while the market overall only grew +2%. That’s resilience.

My Thesis in a Can

1. I saw it being used everywhere: On campus, in the gym, and online.
2. The brand is sticky: Cultural momentum + smart marketing = long-term upside.
3. It’s fundamentally strong: Growth, margins, market share.
4. The stock got unfairly punished: Scandals hurt short-term, not long-term conviction.
5. Peer comparisons show room to grow: Monster and Red Bull have bigger market caps and global penetration. Celsius is just getting started.

Price Target

I’m targeting a return to the high of around $40.32.